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the_long_hot_summer_of_2018

The Long Hot Summer of 2018

Open letter to the Climate Activists about :

(I went to Minnesota to spend time fixing up my neglected family cabin on the edge of the Boundary Waters Wilderness Area. My resting time tends to go to collecting data from the internet. I didn’t stop doing that, but didn’t get as much done with the data as usual. However, I saw patterns…)


  1. I believe this summer has changed the climate community’s sense of urgency dramatically. In the activist role as influencers, I think we need to make sure the urgency is communicated to our teams and to Carbon Reduction Committee and Kate Brown and ???

  2. We do not understand the right way to make sure a law can be appropriately translated into Administrative Rules, and to “dog” the process. We are hoping that the Methane CLE can teach us a lot about that.

  3. How do we encourage thinking in Oregon on some of the big opportunities in going green?

  1. Using Columbia River dams as part of “pumped water storage” to support quick greening of grid.

  2. Pumped water storage using ponds at the top of the Columbia Gorge on either the north or south side.

  3. Quick supply of charge points so that EVs are attractive throughout most of the state.

    1. Offshore Wind – Articles describe Oregon as at the very top of the list of states that could benefit greatly from this.

    2. Protection from dead zones via

      1. Monitoring of Ocean water for runoff and oxygen content.

      2. Water aeration or stirring

      3. Monitoring of agricultural runoff and bringing it under control in realtime

    3. Research in Sequestration / Drawdown opportunities in Oregon

      1. forestry

      2. agricultural

      3. kelp farms?

      4. Urgency:

    4. Statements of time:

      1. The Global Climate Action Summit #GCAS2018 ended with a strong call to action and a slew of new commitments. See how the @UN reacted to the results
        https://t.co/JOhyGsE6Tk

      2. UN Secretary-General Says We Have A Year and a Half to Avoid 'Runaway' Climate Change - Motherboard
        https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/a38zyk/un-secretary-general-says-we-have-a-year-and-a-half-to-avoid-runaway-climate-change

      3. Global warming: Point of no return to avoid 2-degree rise may be 2035 - Business Insider
        https://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-point-of-no-return-temperature-2018-8

      4. Precautionary Principle / Fat Tail Problem / Shy Scientists:

        1. Avoiding catastrophic failures is a very important issue.
          Fat Tail Problem: The likelihood of hitting an unusual event in climate models turns out to be greater than what people automatically guess. We all have been taught that most probability distributions fall into a Bell Curve. We get used to the idea that the bell curve is symmetrical about the mean value, and we eyeball situations making that assumption with little more thought. Not true for climate stuff (often). So, it turns out that being hotter than expected isn’t so unlikely until you get farther away from the mean. This means you can have several contributions toward getting all land areas on the hot side – and pretty far on the hot side. If they add up to a worst case, it means trouble. This has been ignored so easily that two major papers were published this summer about how badly that has caused the urgency to fix things to get understated. As Michael Mann jumped into the discussion, even though this tends to make things be a bit frightening now, he STILL doesn’t like to be perceived as a scaremonger.
          Shy Scientists: Michael isn’t the only one affected this way, and he points out that the total meaning of the current situation is that the public hasn’t been apprised of the risk involved here.

        2. Precautionary Principle: People running projects and people doing modeling to advise projects understand that if something really bad can happen, it is good to put in extra margin of protection. If you are on a mountain road with a cliff to your right, you look for the opportunities to steer a bit to the other side of the road. By analyzing probabilities, you can help decide how far, and how hard to steer away from the cliff

        3. Summary: If you have gotten used to thinking that we know enough from models that we can say there won’t be much risk if we at least get a good start on fixing climate by 2055, listen for the new ideas and approaches that take the following cautionary observations into account:

          1. Michael E. Mann wrote a variety of pieces and/or references to the problem.
            Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) tweeted at 6:23 AM on Sat, Sep 15, 2018:
            “Just realized now that the @Guardian removed two crucial paragraphs toward the end of my commentary (https://t.co/VLYG0nQ4S9) which unfortunately reduces the impact of the piece substantially.
            Here's what the final 3 paragraphs should have been.
            Have asked them to add these back”:
            https://t.co/uK3lkCQxtX
            (
            https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1040954315853258752?s=09)
            Nice Michael Mann quote in this. Hurricane Florence Is a Warning of What’s to Come – Rolling Stone
            https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/hurricane-florence-climate-change-722627/

          2. 100% renewable energy: the public wants it, and quick - Vox
            https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/9/14/17853884/utilities-renewable-energy-100-percent-public-opinion

          3. To Prevent 'Major Extinction Crisis,' Scientist Call for Designating Half of Planet as Protected Areas by 2050
            https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/09/14/prevent-major-extinction-crisis-scientist-call-designating-half-planet-protected

          4. Planet at risk of heading towards “Hothouse Earth” state - Stockholm Resilience Centre
            http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2018-08-06-planet-at-risk-of-heading-towards-hothouse-earth-state.html

          5. A nuclear plant designed like Fukushima is right in Florence’s path | Grist
            https://grist.org/article/a-nuclear-plant-designed-like-fukushima-is-right-in-florences-path/

          6. Global hunger levels rising due to extreme weather, UN warns
            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/11/global-hunger-levels-rising-due-to-extreme-weather-un-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_K-%40_Mail

          7. Climate risks are rising - and they are not limited to the islands
            http://news.trust.org/item/20180907104300-9zwve/

          8. Ocean collapse emerges as a real talking issue these days. As Oregonians with fish/whale/etc. kills in our waters, we should be big advocates for quitting the damage and enabling fixes. – That doesn’t mean a return to gill nets!

          9. Caribbean states beg Trump to grasp climate change threat: 'War has come to us'
            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/07/trump-climate-change-threat-caribbean-islands-warning?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_K-%40_Mail

          10. Closing the High Seas to Fishing Probably Won’t Hurt Global Food Security | Hakai Magazine
            https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/closing-the-high-seas-to-fishing-probably-wont-hurt-global-food-security/

          11. Thousands of Tonnes of Shellfish Have Died in Southern France | Hakai Magazine
            https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/thousands-of-tonnes-of-shellfish-have-died-in-southern-france/

          12. The Oracle of Oyster River | Hakai Magazine
            https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/the-oracle-of-oyster-river/

          13. Pacific Islands fail to agree plan to protect tuna
            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/02/pacific-islands-fail-to-agree-plan-to-protect-tuna?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_K-%40_Mail

          14. Want to combat climate change? Take care of our oceans | The Sacramento Bee
            https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/soapbox/article218021975.html

          15. Loads of seaweed are threatening the Caribbean's sea life and tourism. Experts say we may be to blame
            http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-mexico-caribbean-seaweed-20180908-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

        4. Domino Effect

          1. Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a ‘hothouse’ state
            https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_K-%40_Mail

          2. Climate change is speeding up. Our response needs to be even faster | World Economic Forum
            https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/why-there-need-for-speed-on-climate-action-paris-agreement/

          3. WorldLink: Meet Mr Climate Change
            https://www.dw.com/en/worldlink-meet-mr-climate-change/av-45197919

        5. Janet Yellen calls for US carbon tax to curb climate change | Financial Times
          https://www.ft.com/content/a70edd88-b486-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe

        6. 'Not Doing Anything Is No Longer Acceptable': A Conversation With Alice Thomas, Climate Refugee Expert | Pacific Standard
          https://psmag.com/environment/not-doing-anything-is-no-longer-acceptable-a-conversation-with-alice-thomas-climate-refugee-expert

        7. The bad news about Methane is Everywhere:

          1. Trump Lights the Fuse on a Deadly Methane Bomb
            https://truthout.org/articles/trump-lights-the-fuse-on-a-deadly-methane-bomb/

          2. Methane Emissions EPA:
            https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/10/climate/methane-emissions-epa.html

          3. Methane release from Arctic permafrost found to be > doubled by unexpectedly abrupt thawing – Jeremy Leggett
            https://jeremyleggett.net/2018/08/20/methane-release-from-arctic-permafrost-found-to-be-doubled-by-unexpectedly-abrupt-thawing/

        8. Comments to article:
          Gerithegreek518

Kentucky

Times Pick

How sadly ironic and paradoxical the human being . . .

  • spending millions on research to lengthen the human lifespan beyond what is physically possible,

  • millions more on defeating disease processes that our lifestyles have brought upon us and diseases our poisoning the planet and its atmosphere have wrought,

  • and millions more to develop methods to bring custom-made beings into a world over-flowing with starving, homeless people fleeing the ravages brought on by others.

We try to deny our mortality—all the while poisoning the air and water and earth beneath our feet, fouling our nest . . . perhaps already having reached the point of no return.


We want to blame Trump, the man we ushered into the most powerful position on Earth, and the other money magnates who continue to rape the planet of its resources and sell what was already ours back to us as though they invented the oil and coal and land.


But this nonsense has gone on for decades and we've all been aware of it, no matter our efforts to deny it. We attended meetings discussing recycling five decades ago. We bemoaned acid rain. We worked around the hole in the ozone layer. We point fingers at other nations and say they don’t do their part to remedy this, but we have led the siege on the Earth—we're decades ahead of the others in abusing this planet we call home. We're all to blame and I don’t think we have the ambition or discipline or common sense to turn it around. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve seen no evidence of it.

jrinsc commented September 11

J

jrinsc

South Carolina

Times Pick
So, here in South Carolina, as we await the arrival of Hurricane Florence, the New York Times has two articles on their front page today: one about the hurricane, and another about easing methane standards that will only increase climate change, making more severe hurricanes even more likely. The sheer stupidity and complete amorality of the Trump administration and their obsession with short-term profits is both stupefying and terrifying. On this hallowed day of 9/11, as we remember that horrible tragedy, I'd like to believe there will come a day when we prosecute individuals and companies for environmental crimes against humanity.

      1. Guest post: How Arctic lakes accelerate permafrost carbon losses | Carbon Brief
        https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-arctic-lakes-accelerate-permafrost-carbon-losses

      2. On thin, melting ice | UN Environment
        http://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/thin-melting-ice

    1. Encouraging news :

    1. NYC Pension Funds to Double Green Investments - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nyc-pension-funds-to-double-green-investments-1536793665

    1. State of California and Planet Announce Groundbreaking Initiative to Support Action on Climate Change

https://www.planet.com/pulse/state-of-california-and-planet-announce-groundbreaking-initiative-to-support-action-on-climate-change/

    1. Good Ideas

    1. Note that Ed A. is building the story of what we believe the first layer of applying Mark Z. Jacobson (MZJ)’s plan for Oregon would look like as applied through Clean Energy Jobs at: http://esf-oregon.org/doku.php?id=esf_-_oregon_greening_strategy
      MZJ on Oregon:


    1. Here's our click ready 100% all-sector Oregon roadmap from MZJ.

https://t.co/f7VsPJdto6
https://t.co/pGaym7I46V

    1. Sen. Dembrow talks about the need for a program manager to deal with implementing legislated GHG inventory management in Oregon. A program manager, qualified to manage any US Government program, will be an expert in System Safety

    2. Earth Law; Ecocide theory

Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, 1998

http://legal.un.org/icc/statute/99_corr/cstatute.htm

Try this link
https://www.google.com/search?as_q=Ecocide&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=http%3A%2F%2Flegal.un.org%2F&as_occt=any&safe=active&as_filetype=&as_rights=


    1. NASA launches satellite to measure melting glaciers | TheHill

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/energy-environment/406839-nasa-launches-satellite-to-measure-melting?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    1. Engineering Safety Factors

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_of_safety
https://www.mechanical360.net/updates/factor-of-safety-and-margin-of-safety/
https://www.researchgate.net/post/How_important_is_the_factor_of_safety_and_how_it_is_affect_the_design_and_costing
https://ojs.library.queensu.ca/index.php/PCEEA/article/view/4654/4636

      1. Safety Factors should be included in climate analysis

https://www.creativemechanisms.com/blog/factor-of-safety-in-design-and-engineering-the-basics

https://ethicsandtechnology.eu/wp-content/uploads/downloadable-content/Should-Probabilistic-Design-Replace-Safety-Factors.pdf

    1. Consensus grows: climate-smart agriculture key to Paris Agreement goals

https://news.mongabay.com/2017/12/consensus-grows-climate-smart-agriculture-key-to-paris-agreement-goals/

    1. [Global Greens statement] Climate Change is Our Priority Now | Global Greens

https://www.globalgreens.org/news/global-greens-statement-climate-change-our-priority-now

    1. Why our current response to the climate crisis is doomed to fail – We Don't Have Time – Medium

https://medium.com/wedonthavetime/why-our-current-response-to-the-climate-crisis-is-doomed-to-fail-14d08eebb082

    1. Climate Change Impacts 'No Longer Subtle,' Scientist Says | Here & Now

http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/08/02/summer-weather-climate-change

    1. U.S. cities lose 28 million trees a year » Yale Climate Connections

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/08/u-s-cities-lose-28-million-trees-a-year/

    1. Climate Changes After Last Ice Age Point to Dire Future — “Must Move Rapidly Towards an Emission-Free Global Economy”

https://dailygalaxy.com/2018/09/climate-changes-after-last-ice-age-point-to-dire-future-must-move-rapidly-towards-an-emission-free-global-economy/


    1. Carbon Intensity Paper

If I understand it right, this guy found a new published article on "Carbon Intensity" which means: How much carbon was spent per unit fuel by the time it was a fuel, ready for use. This intensity seems to be expressed as a multiplier on the carbon of the unit of fuel.

And, if I understand what he is saying, for oil converted to gasoline, it cost 40% as much more carbon than will be produced by the burning of the gasoline. … They don’t tell us about that, much.



That article reference is

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/851

So, I gather this is all saying that the 2015 IPCC emissions summaries are now suspected to be 1/1.4 underestimates of reality.

If we really have inaccuracies in reporting at THAT level, OMG.

And, the more these new bit of data roll in, the more it says, "we need to transition to carbon-free fuel ASAP", and more and more people's description of ASAP is 10 years to mostly carbon free.

And, I see DEQ wanting to spend a bunch of time figuring out Carbon Intensity numbers for fuels in Oregon, and making that drive "Clean Fuel Credits"?

I think they had one Clean Fuel on their list, and they called it "electricity".

    1. Good happenings

    1. The Oregon Department of Energy Recommends Denying Jordan Cove Liquified Natural Gas Project an Exemption - Willamette Week

http://www.wweek.com/news/2018/09/01/the-oregon-department-energy-recommends-denying-jordan-cove-liquified-natural-gas-project-an-exemption/

    1. Nature Conservancy | On the Path of Climate Progress

https://global.nature.org/content/on-the-path-of-climate-progress?src=social.multiple.site_globsol.cam_gcas.link_progress.d_sep2018.info_stake#GCAS2018

    1. These technology trends can pave way for global climate action | Environmental Defense Fund

https://www.edf.org/blog/2018/09/06/these-technology-trends-can-pave-way-global-climate-action

    1. Governor Brown Welcomes Chinese Delegation to Global Climate Action Summit, Lauds Expansion of Under2 Coalition – Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2018/09/12/governor-brown-welcomes-chinese-delegation-to-global-climate-action-summit-lauds-expansion-of-under2-coalition/

    1. China has an online platform to pay people to plant trees | World Economic Forum

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1002590/Guizhou%20Pilots%20Carbon%20Offset%20Poverty%20Alleviation%20Program

    1. Amazon mangroves ‘twice as carbon rich’ as its rainforests
      Is this good news or bad? If we get 10 feet of sea rise, it will drown all the roots of mangroves in sea waters. We would need to move them or regenerate groves at new shore.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/amazon-mangroves-twice-as-carbon-rich-as-its-rainforests

    1. Elevating Ocean-Based Climate Solutions - Center for American Progress

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2018/08/16/454850/elevating-ocean-based-climate-solutions/

    1. Governor Brown Signs Bills to Block Trump Administration’s Offshore Oil Drilling Expansion – Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2018/09/08/trump-offshore-oil-drilling-expansion/

    1. High-risk high-reward investments to mitigate climate change | Nature Climate Change

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0266-y

    1. Climate change focus could grow world economy by $26 trillion

http://www.businessinsider.com/global-commission-on-the-economy-and-climate-report-2018-9

    1. It’s Official! California Is Moving Toward Zero-Carbon Energy | Earthjustice

https://earthjustice.org/blog/2018-september/california-makes-history-with-bold-bill-for-zero-carbon-energy

    1. Filling Sahara with solar and wind farms would double local rainfall | New Scientist

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178853-filling-sahara-with-solar-and-wind-farms-would-double-local-rainfall/

    1. World's largest offshore wind farm Walney Extension swings into action for energy

https://techxplore.com/news/2018-09-world-largest-offshore-farm-walney.html

    1. Taking 100% Clean Energy From ‘Radical’ to ‘Political Reality’

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/taking-100-clean-energy-from-radical-to-political-reality

    1. The Power of Minnesota (@PowerOfMN) tweeted at 2:24 PM on Wed, Aug 29, 2018:

Gene Lemke, the vice president of Anderson Trucking Services in St. Cloud, knows how to spot a good business opportunity. Today, Anderson Trucking Services transports one out of every three #windenergy loads in America.
https://t.co/ZmfXdgkQnZ
https://t.co/ZlRKhSnHGR

    1. Assessment of hydrogen direct reduction for fossil-free steelmaking - ScienceDirect

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618326301


the_long_hot_summer_of_2018.txt · Last modified: 2018/12/17 15:24 by admin